2.1 Wind turbine design
An example of a wind turbine, this 3 bladed turbine is the classic design of modern wind turbines
Wind turbine design is the process of defining the form and specifications of a wind turbine to extract energy from the wind. A wind turbine installation consists of the necessary systems needed to capture the wind's energy, point the turbine into the wind, convert mechanical rotation into electrical power, and other systems to start, stop, and control the turbine.
This article covers the design of horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWT) since the majority of commercial turbines use this design. Contrary to popular belief, considerable attention should be given to the structural and foundation design of HAWTs. This is mainly due to the disproportionate amount that is spent on the foundations as a percentage of the total project cost.
2.1.1 Design specification
The design specification for a wind-turbine will contain a power curve and guaranteed availability. With the data from the wind resource assessment it is possible to calculate commercial viability. The typical operating temperature range is -20 to 40 °C (-4 to 104 °F). In areas with extreme climate (like Inner Mongolia or Rajasthan) specific cold and hot weather versions are required.
Wind turbines can be designed and validated according to IEC 61400 standards.
2.1.2 Low temperature
Utility-scale wind turbine generators have minimum temperature operating limits which apply in areas that experience temperatures below –20 °C. Wind turbines must be protected from ice accumulation, which can make anemometer readings inaccurate and which can cause high structure loads and damage. Some turbine manufacturers offer low-temperature packages at a few percent extra cost, which include internal heaters, different lubricants, and different alloys for structural elements. If the low-temperature interval is combined with a low-wind condition, the wind turbine will require an external supply of power, equivalent to a few percent of its rated power, for internal heating. For example, the St. Leon, Manitoba project has a total rating of 99 MW and is estimated to need up to 3 MW (around 3% of capacity) of station service power a few days a year for temperatures down to –30 °C. This factor affects the economics of wind turbine operation in cold climates.
2.1.3 Aerodynamics
The aerodynamics of a horizontal-axis wind turbine are not straightforward. The air flow at the blades is not the same as the airflow far away from the turbine. The very nature of the way in which energy is extracted from the air also causes air to be deflected by the turbine. In addition the aerodynamics of a wind turbine at the rotor surface exhibit phenomena that are rarely seen in other aerodynamic fields.
In 1919 the physicist Albert Betz showed that for a hypothetical ideal wind-energy extraction machine, the fundamental laws of conservation of mass and energy allowed no more than 16/27 (59.3%) of the kinetic energy of the wind to be captured. This Betz' law limit can be approached by modern turbine designs which may reach 70 to 80% of this theoretical limit.
2.1.4 Power control
A wind turbine is designed to produce a maximum of power at wide spectrum of wind speeds. All wind turbines are designed for a maximum wind speed, called the survival speed, above which they do not survive. The survival speed of commercial wind turbines is in the range of 40 m/s (144 km/h, 89 MPH) to 72 m/s (259 km/h, 161 MPH). The most common survival speed is 60 m/s (216 km/h, 134 MPH). The wind turbines have three modes of operation:
Plastic vortex generator stripes used to control stall characteristics of the blade - in this example protecting the blade from rapid fluctuations in wind speed.
· Below rated wind speed operation
· Around rated wind speed operation (usually at nameplate capacity)
· Above rated wind speed operation
If the rated wind speed is exceeded the power has to be limited. There are various ways to achieve this.
Stall
Standard Kinematic's SE slewing drive. Kinematic Slewing Drive can handle over 300kNm of torque.
Closeup look at the vortex generators (VGs) - the larger ones are closest to the root of the blade where the boundary layer is thicker(i.e., closest to the hub)
Stalling works by increasing the angle at which the relative wind strikes the blades (angle of attack), and it reduces the induced drag (drag associated with lift). Stalling is simple because it can be made to happen passively (it increases automatically when the winds speed up), but it increases the cross-section of the blade face-on to the wind, and thus the ordinary drag. A fully stalled turbine blade, when stopped, has the flat side of the blade facing directly into the wind.
A fixed-speed HAWT inherently increases its angle of attack at higher wind speed as the blades speed up. A natural strategy, then, is to allow the blade to stall when the wind speed increases. This technique was successfully used on many early HAWTs. However, on some of these blade sets, it was observed that the degree of blade pitch tended to increase audible noise levels.
Vortex generators may be used to control the lift characteristics of the blade. The VGs are placed on the airfoil to enhance the lift if they are placed on the lower (flatter) surface or limit the maximum lift if placed on the upper (higher camber) surface.
2.1.5 Pitch control
Furling works by decreasing the angle of attack, which reduces the induced drag from the lift of the rotor, as well as the cross-section. One major problem in designing wind turbines is getting the blades to stall or furl quickly enough should a gust of wind cause sudden acceleration. A fully furled turbine blade, when stopped, has the edge of the blade facing into the wind.
Standard modern turbines all pitch the blades in high winds. Since pitching requires acting against the torque on the blade, it requires some form of pitch angle control, which is achieved with a slewing drive. This drive precisely angles the blade while withstanding high torque loads. In addition, many turbines use hydraulic systems. These systems are usually spring loaded, so that if hydraulic power fails, the blades automatically furl. Other turbines use an electric servomotor for every rotor blade. They have a small battery-reserve in case of an electric-grid breakdown. Small wind turbines (under 50 kW) with variable-pitching generally use systems operated by centrifugal force, either by flyweights or geometric design, and employ no electric or hydraulic controls.
2.1.6 Yawing
Modern large wind turbines are typically actively controlled to face the wind direction measured by a wind vane situated on the back of the nacelle. By minimizing the yaw angle (the misalignment between wind and turbine pointing direction), the power output is maximized and non-symmetrical loads minimized. However, since the wind direction varies quickly the turbine will not strictly follow the direction and will have a small yaw angle on average. The power output losses can simply be approximated to fall with cos3(yaw angle).
2.1.7 Electrical braking
Dynamic braking resistor for wind turbine.
Braking of a small wind turbine can also be done by dumping energy from the generator into a resistor bank, converting the kinetic energy of the turbine rotation into heat. This method is useful if the kinetic load on the generator is suddenly reduced or is too small to keep the turbine speed within its allowed limit.
Cyclically braking causes the blades to slow down, which increases the stalling effect, reducing the efficiency of the blades. This way, the turbine's rotation can be kept at a safe speed in faster winds while maintaining (nominal) power output. This method is usually not applied on large grid-connected wind turbines.
2.1.8 Mechanical braking
A mechanical drum brake or disk brake is used to hold the turbine at rest for maintenance. Such brakes are usually applied only after blade furling and electromagnetic braking have reduced the turbine speed, as the mechanical brakes would wear quickly if used to stop the turbine from full speed. There can also be a stick brake.
2.1.9 Turbine size
A person standing beside medium size modern turbine blades.
For a given survivable wind speed, the mass of a turbine is approximately proportional to the cube of its blade-length. Wind power intercepted by the turbine is proportional to the square of its blade-length. The maximum blade-length of a turbine is limited by both the strength and stiffness of its material.
Labor and maintenance costs increase only gradually with increasing turbine size, so to minimize costs, wind farm turbines are basically limited by the strength of materials, and siting requirements.
Typical modern wind turbines have diameters of 40 to 90 metres (130 to 300 ft) and are rated between 500 kW and 2 MW. As of 2010 the most powerful turbine is rated at 7 MW.
2.1.10 Generator
10 Israeli wind turbines in the Golan Heights 600 kW each
For large, commercial size horizontal-axis wind turbines, the generator is mounted in a nacelle at the top of a tower, behind the hub of the turbine rotor. Typically wind turbines generate electricity through asynchronous machines that are directly connected with the electricity grid. Usually the rotational speed of the wind turbine is slower than the equivalent rotation speed of the electrical network - typical rotation speeds for a wind generators are 5-20 rpm while a directly connected machine will have an electrical speed between 750-3600 rpm. Therefore, a gearbox is inserted between the rotor hub and the generator. This also reduces the generator cost and weight.
Commercial size generators have a rotor carrying a field winding so that a rotating magnetic field is produced inside a set of windings called the stator. While the rotating field winding consumes a fraction of a percent of the generator output, adjustment of the field current allows good control over the generator output voltage. Enercon has produced gearless wind turbines with separately excited generators for many years, and Siemens produces a gearless "inverted generator" 3MW model while developing a 6MW model. This gives better reliability and performance than gear based systems. Gearless turbines
Older style wind generators rotate at a constant speed, to match power line frequency, which allowed the use of less costly induction generators. Newer wind turbines often turn at whatever speed generates electricity most efficiently. This can be solved using multiple technologies such as doubly fed induction generators or full-effect converters where the variable frequency current produced is converted to DC and then back to AC, matching the line frequency and voltage. Although such alternatives require costly equipment and cause power loss, the turbine can capture a significantly larger fraction of the wind energy. In some cases, especially when turbines are sited offshore, the DC energy will be transmitted from the turbine to a central (onshore) inverter for connection to the grid.
2.1.11 Blades
Blade design
The ratio between the speed of the blade tips and the speed of the wind is called tip speed ratio. High efficiency 3-blade-turbines have tip speed/wind speed ratios of 6 to 7.
Modern wind turbines are designed to spin at varying speeds (a consequence of their generator design, see above). Use of aluminum and composite materials in their blades has contributed to low rotational inertia, which means that newer wind turbines can accelerate quickly if the winds pick up, keeping the tip speed ratio more nearly constant. Operating closer to their optimal tip speed ratio during energetic gusts of wind allows wind turbines to improve energy capture from sudden gusts that are typical in urban settings.
In contrast, older style wind turbines were designed with heavier steel blades, which have higher inertia, and rotated at speeds governed by the AC frequency of the power lines. The high inertia buffered the changes in rotation speed and thus made power output more stable.
The speed and torque at which a wind turbine rotates must be controlled for several reasons:
· To optimize the aerodynamic efficiency of the rotor in light winds.
· To keep the generator within its speed and torque limits.
· To keep the rotor and hub within their centrifugal force limits. The centrifugal force from the spinning rotors increases as the square of the rotation speed, which makes this structure sensitive to overspeed.
· To keep the rotor and tower within their strength limits. Because the power of the wind increases as the cube of the wind speed, turbines have to be built to survive much higher wind loads (such as gusts of wind) than those from which they can practically generate power. Since the blades generate more torsional and vertical forces (putting far greater stress on the tower and nacelle due to the tendency of the rotor to precess and nutate) when they are producing torque, most wind turbines have ways of reducing torque in high winds.
· To enable maintenance. Since it is dangerous to have people working on a wind turbine while it is active, it is sometimes necessary to bring a turbine to a full stop.
· To reduce noise. As a rule of thumb, the noise from a wind turbine increases with the fifth power of the relative wind speed (as seen from the moving tip of the blades). In noise-sensitive environments, the tip speed can be limited to approximately 60 m/s (200 ft/s).
Blade count
The NASA Mod-0 research wind turbine at Glenn Research Center's Plum Brook station in Ohio tested a one-bladed rotor configuration
The determination of the number of blades involves design considerations of aerodynamic efficiency, component costs, system reliability, and aesthetics. Noise emissions are affected by the location of the blades upwind or downwind of the tower and the speed of the rotor. Given that the noise emissions from the blades' trailing edges and tips vary by the 5th power of blade speed, a small increase in tip speed can make a large difference.
Wind turbines developed over the last 50 years have almost universally used either two or three blades. Aerodynamic efficiency increases with number of blades but with diminishing return. Increasing the number of blades from one to two yields a six percent increase in aerodynamic efficiency, whereas increasing the blade count from two to three yields only an additional three percent in efficiency. Further increasing the blade count yields minimal improvements in aerodynamic efficiency and sacrifices too much in blade stiffness as the blades become thinner.
Component costs that are affected by blade count are primarily for materials and manufacturing of the turbine rotor and drive train. Generally, the fewer the number of blades, the lower the material and manufacturing costs will be. In addition, the fewer the number of blades, the higher the rotational speed can be. This is because blade stiffness requirements to avoid interference with the tower limit how thin the blades can be manufactured, but only for upwind machines; deflection of blades in a downwind machine results in increased tower clearance. Fewer blades with higher rotational speeds reduce peak torques in the drive train, resulting in lower gearbox and generator costs.
The 98 meter diameter, two-bladed NASA/DOE Mod-5B wind turbine was the largest operating wind turbine in the world in the early 1990s
System reliability is affected by blade count primarily through the dynamic loading of the rotor into the drive train and tower systems. While aligning the wind turbine to changes in wind direction (yawing), each blade experiences a cyclic load at its root end depending on blade position. This is true of one, two, three blades or more. However, these cyclic loads when combined together at the drive train shaft are symmetrically balanced for three blades, yielding smoother operation during turbine yaw. Turbines with one or two blades can use a pivoting teetered hub to also nearly eliminate the cyclic loads into the drive shaft and system during yawing.
Finally, aesthetics can be considered a factor in that some people find that the three-bladed rotor is more pleasing to look at than a one- or two-bladed rotor.
Blade materials
New generation wind turbine designs are pushing power generation from the single megawatt range to upwards of 10 megawatts. The common trend of these larger capacity designs are larger and larger wind turbine blades. Covering a larger area effectively increases the tip-speed ratio of a turbine at a given wind speed, thus increasing the energy extraction capability of a turbine system.
Current production wind turbine blades are manufactured as large as 100 meters in diameter with prototypes in the range of 110 to 120 meters. In 2001, an estimated 50 million kilograms of fiberglass laminate were used in wind turbine blades. New materials and manufacturing methods provide the opportunity to improve wind turbine efficiency by allowing for larger, stronger blades.
One of the most important goals when designing larger blade systems is to keep blade weight under control. Since blade mass scales as the cube of the turbine radius, loading due to gravity becomes a constraining design factor for systems with larger blades.
Current manufacturing methods for blades in the 40 to 50 meter range involve various proven fiberglass composite fabrication techniques. Manufactures such as Nordex and GE Wind use an infusion process for blade manufacture. Other manufacturers use variations on this technique, some including carbon and wood with fiberglass in an epoxy matrix. Options also include prepreg fiberglass and vacuum-assisted resin transfer molding. Essentially each of these options are variations on the same theme: a glass-fiber reinforced polymer composite constructed through various means with differing complexity. Perhaps the largest issue with more simplistic, open-mold, wet systems are the emissions associated with the volatile organics released into the atmosphere. Preimpregnated materials and resin infusion techniques avoid the release of volatiles by containing all reaction gases. However, these contained processes have their own challenges, namely the production of thick laminates necessary for structural components becomes more difficult. As the preform resin permeability dictates the maximum laminate thickness, bleeding is required to eliminate voids and insure proper resin distribution. A unique solution to resin distribution is the use of a partially preimpregnated fiberglass. During evacuation, the dry fabric provides a path for airflow and, once heat and pressure are applied, resin may flow into the dry region resulting in a thoroughly impregnated laminate structure.
Epoxy-based composites are of greatest interest to wind turbine manufacturers because they deliver a key combination of environmental, production, and cost advantages over other resin systems. Epoxies also improve wind turbine blade composite manufacture by allowing for shorter cure cycles, increased durability, and improved surface finish. Prepreg operations further improve cost-effective operations by reducing processing cycles, and therefore manufacturing time, over wet lay-up systems. As turbine blades are approaching 60 meters and greater, infusion techniques are becoming more prevalent as the traditional resin transfer moulding injection time is too long as compared to the resin set-up time, thus limiting laminate thickness. Injection forces resin through a thicker ply stack, thus depositing the resin where in the laminate structure before gelatin occurs. Specialized epoxy resins have been developed to customize lifetimes and viscosity to tune resin performance in injection applications.
Carbon fiber-reinforced load-bearing spars have recently been identified as a cost-effective means for reducing weight and increasing stiffness. The use of carbon fibers in 60 meter turbine blades is estimated to result in a 38% reduction in total blade mass and a 14% decrease in cost as compared to a 100% fiberglass design. The use of carbon fibers has the added benefit of reducing the thickness of fiberglass laminate sections, further addressing the problems associated with resin wetting of thick lay-up sections. Wind turbine applications of carbon fiber may also benefit from the general trend of increasing use and decreasing cost of carbon fiber materials.
Smaller blades can be made from light metals such as aluminum. Wood and canvas sails were originally used on early windmills due to their low price, availability, and ease of manufacture. These materials, however, require frequent maintenance during their lifetime. Also, wood/canvas constructions have design constraints that limit the airfoil shape to that of a flat plate, which has a relatively high ratio of drag (low aerodynamic efficiency) force captured when compared to solid airfoil designs. Construction of solid airfoil designs is possible only through use of inflexible materials such as metals or composites.
2.1.12 Tower
Typically, 2 types of towers exist: floating towers and land-based towers.
Tower height
Wind velocities increase at higher altitudes due to surface aerodynamic drag (by land or water surfaces) and the viscosity of the air. The variation in velocity with altitude, called wind shear, is most dramatic near the surface.
Wind turbines generating electricity at the San Gorgonio Pass Wind Farm.
Typically, in daytime the variation follows the wind profile power law, which predicts that wind speed rises proportionally to the seventh root of altitude. Doubling the altitude of a turbine, then, increases the expected wind speeds by 10% and the expected power by 34%. To avoid buckling, doubling the tower height generally requires doubling the diameter of the tower as well, increasing the amount of material by a factor of at least four.
At night time, or when the atmosphere becomes stable, wind speed close to the ground usually subsides whereas at turbine hub altitude it does not decrease that much or may even increase. As a result the wind speed is higher and a turbine will produce more power than expected from the 1/7 power law: doubling the altitude may increase wind speed by 20% to 60%. A stable atmosphere is caused by radiative cooling of the surface and is common in a temperate climate: it usually occurs when there is a (partly) clear sky at night. When the (high altitude) wind is strong (a 10-meter (33 ft) wind speed higher than approximately 6 to 7 m/s (20–23 ft/s)) the stable atmosphere is disrupted because of friction turbulence and the atmosphere will turn neutral. A daytime atmosphere is either neutral (no net radiation; usually with strong winds and/or heavy clouding) or unstable (rising air because of ground heating—by the sun). Here again the 1/7 power law applies or is at least a good approximation of the wind profile. Indiana had been rated as having a wind capacity of 30,000 MW, but by raising the expected turbine height from 50 m to 70 m, the wind capacity estimate was raised to 40,000 MW, and could be double that at 100 m.
For HAWTs, tower heights approximately two to three times the blade length have been found to balance material costs of the tower against better utilisation of the more expensive active components.
2.1.13 Foundations
Wind turbines, by their nature, are very tall slender structures, this can cause a number of issues when the structural design of the foundations are considered.
The foundations for a conventional engineering structure are designed mainly to transfer the vertical load (dead weight) to the ground, this generally allows for a comparatively unsophisticated arrangement to be used. However in the case of wind turbines, due to the high wind and environmental loads experienced there is a significant horizontal dynamic load that needs to be appropriately restrained.
This loading regime causes large moment loads to be applied to the foundations of a wind turbine. As a result, considerable attention needs to be given when designing the footings to ensure that the turbines are sufficiently restrained to operate efficiently. In the current Det Norske Veritas (DNV) guidelines for the design of wind turbines the angular deflection of the foundations are limited to 0.5°, DNV guidelines regarding earthquakes suggest that horizontal loads are larger than vertical loads for offshore wind turbines, while guidelines for tsunamis only suggest designing for maximum sea waves.
Scale model tests using a 50g centrifuge are being performed at the Technical University of Denmark to test monopile foundations for offshore wind turbines at 30-50m water depth.
2.2 Wind power forecasting
A wind power forecast corresponds to an estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines (referred to as a wind farm) in the near future. By production is often meant available power for wind farm considered (with units kW or MW depending on the wind farm nominal capacity). Forecasts can also be expressed in terms of energy, by integrating power production over each time interval. Forecasting of the wind power generation may be considered at different time scales, depending on the intended application:
• from milliseconds up to a few minutes, forecasts can be used for the turbine active control. Such type of forecasts are usually referred to asvery short-term forecasts
• for the following 48–72 hours, forecasts are needed for the power system management or energy trading. They may serve for deciding on the use of conventional power plants (Unit commitment) and for the optimization of the scheduling of these plants (Economic dispatch). Regarding the trading application, bids are usually required during the morning of day d for day d+1 from midnight to midnight. These forecasts are called short-term forecasts
• for longer time scales (up to 5–7 days ahead), forecasts may be considered for planning the maintenance of wind farms, or conventional power plants or transmission lines. For the specific case of offshore wind farms maintenance costs may be prohibitive, and thus an optimal planning of maintenance operations is of particular importance.
For the last two possibilities, the temporal resolution of wind power predictions ranges between 10 minutes and few hours (depending on the forecast length). Lately, most of the works for improving wind power forecasting solutions have focused on using more and more data as input to the models involved, or alternatively on the providing of reliable uncertainty estimates along with the traditionally provided predictions.
2.2.1 Reason for wind power forecasts
In the electricity grid at any moment balance must be maintained between electricity consumption and generation - otherwise disturbances in power quality or supply may occur. Wind generation is a direct function of wind speed and, in contrast to conventional generation systems, is not easily dispatchable. Fluctuations of wind generation thus receive a great amount of attention. Variability of wind generation can be regarded at various time scales. First, wind power production is subject to seasonal variations, i.e. it may be higher in winter in Northern Europe due to low-pressure meteorological systems or it may be higher in summer in the Mediterranean regions owing to strong summer breezes. There are also daily cycles which may be substantial, mainly due to daily temperature changes. Finally, fluctuations are observed at the very short-term scale (at the minute or intra-minute scale). The variations are not of the same order for these three different timescales. Managing the variability of wind generation is the key aspect associated to the optimal integration of that renewable energy into electricity grids.
The challenges to face when wind generation is injected in a power system depend on the share of that renewable energy. It is a basic concept, the wind penetration which allows one to describe the share of wind generation in the electricity mix of a given power system. For Denmark, which is a country with one of the highest shares of wind power in the electricity mix, the average wind power penetration over the year is of 16-20% (meaning that 16-20% of the electricity consumption is met wind energy), while the instantaneous penetration (that is, the instantaneous wind power production compared to the consumption to be met at a given time) may be above 100%.
The Transmission System Operator (TSO) is responsible for managing the electricity balance on the grid: at any time, electricity production has to match consumption. Therefore, the use of production means is scheduled in advance in order to respond to load profiles. The load corresponds to the total electricity consumption over the area of interest. Load profiles are usually given by load forecasts which are of high accuracy. For making up the daily schedule, TSOs may consider their own power production means, if they have any, and/or they can purchase power generation from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and utilities, via bilateral contracts or electricity pools. In the context of deregulation, more and more players appear on the market, thus breaking the traditional situation of vertically-integrated utilities with quasi local monopolies. Two main mechanisms compose electricity markets. The first one is the spot market where participants propose quantities of energy for the following day at a given production cost. An auction system permits to settle the electricity spot price for the various periods depending on the different bids. The second mechanism is the balancing of power generation, which is coordinated by the TSO. Depending on the energy lacks and surplus (e.g. due to power plant failures or to intermittence in the case of wind power installations), the TSO determines the penalties that will be paid by IPPs who missed in their obligations. In some cases, an intra-day market is also present, in order to take corrective actions.
In order to illustrate this electricity market mechanism, let us consider the Dutch electricity market. Market participants, referred to as Program Responsible Parties (PRPs), submit their price-quantity bids before 11 am for the delivery period covering the following day from midnight to midnight. The Program Time Unit (PTU) on the balancing market is of 15 minutes. Balancing of the 15-minute averaged power is required from all electrical producers and consumers connected to the grid, who for this purpose may be organised in sub-sets. Since these sub-sets are referred to as Programmes, balancing on the 15-minute scale is referred to as Programme Balance. Programme Balance now is maintained by using the production schedules issued the day before delivery and measurement reports (distributed the day after delivery). When the measured power is not equal to the scheduled power, there is so-called Programme Imbalance:
Programme Imbalance is settled by the System Operator, with different tariffs for negative Programme Imbalance and positive Programme Imbalance. What therefore counts is the absolute value of the Programme Imbalance.
If only production from wind energy is taken into account, Programme Imbalance reduces to:
In the case of a positive Programme Imbalance by wind energy the realised wind production is bigger than the forecast wind production. And vice versa, in the case of a negative Programme Imbalance by wind energy.
If all other strategies to control Programme Imbalance are not considered, Programme Imbalance due to wind energy boils down to:
Note that the costs for positive and negative imbalances may be asymmetric, depending on the balancing market mechanism. In general, wind power producers are penalized by such market system since a great part of their production may be subject to penalties.
In parallel to be used for market participation, wind power forecasts may be used for the optimal combined operation of wind and conventional generation, wind and hydro-power generation, or wind in combination with some energy storage devices. They also serve as a basis for quantifying the reserve needs for compensating the eventual lacks of wind production.
2.2.2 General methodology
There exists today a wealth of methods for short-term prediction of wind generation. The simplest ones are based on climatology or averages of past production values. They may be considered as reference forecasting methods since they are easy to implement, as well as benchmark when evaluating more advanced approaches. The most popular of these reference methods is certainly persistence. This naive predictor — commonly referred to as ‘what you see is what you get’ — states that the future wind generation will be the same as the last measured value. Despite its apparent simplicity, this naive method might be hard to beat for look-ahead times up to 4–6 hours ahead
Advanced approaches for short-term wind power forecasting necessitate predictions of meteorological variables as input. Then, they differ in the way predictions of meteorological variables are converted to predictions of wind power production, through the so-called power curve. Such advanced methods are traditionally divided into two groups. The first group, referred to as physical approach, focuses on the description of the wind flow around and inside the wind farm, and use the manufacturer's power curve, for proposing an estimation of the wind power output. In parallel the second group, referred to as statistical approach, concentrates on capturing the relation between meteorological predictions (and possibly historical measurements) and power output through statistical models whose parameters have to be estimated from data, without making any assumption on the physical phenomena.
2.2.3 Prediction of meteorological variables
Wind power generation is directly linked to weather conditions and thus the first aspect of wind power forecasting is the prediction of future values of the necessary weather variables at the level of the wind farm. This is done by using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Such models are based on equations governing the motions and forces affecting motion of fluids. From the knowledge of the actual state of the atmosphere, the system of equations allows to estimate what the evolution of state variables, e.g. temperature, velocity, humidity and pressure, will be at a series of grid points. The meteorological variables that are needed as input for wind power prediction obviously include wind speed and direction, but also possibly temperature, pressure and humidity. The distance between grid points is called the spatial resolution of the NWPs. The mesh typically has spacing that varies between few kilometers and up to 50 kilometers for mesoscale models. Regarding the time axis, the forecast length of most of the operational models today is between 48 and 172 hours ahead, which is in adequacy with the requirements for the wind power application. The temporal resolution is usually between 1 and 3 hours. NWP models impose their temporal resolution to short-term wind power forecasting methods since they are used as a direct input.
Predictions of meteorological variables are provided by meteorological institutes. Meteorologists employ atmospheric models for weather forecasts on short and medium term periods. An atmospheric model is a numerical approximation of the physical description of the state of the atmosphere in the near future, and usually is run on a supercomputer. Each computation starts with initial conditions originating from recent measurements. The output consists of the expected average value of physical quantities at various vertical levels in a horizontal grid and stepping in time up to several hours after initiation. There are several reasons why atmospheric models only approximate reality. First of all, not all relevant atmospheric processes are included in the model. Also, the initial conditions may contain errors (which in a worse case propagate), and the output is only available for discrete points in space (horizontal as well as vertical) and time. Finally, the initial conditions age with time - they are already old when the computation starts let alone when the output is published. Predictions of meteorological variables are issued several times per day (commonly between 2 and 4 times per day), and are available few hours after the beginning of the forecast period. This is because some time is needed for acquiring and analyzing the wealth of measurements used as input to NWP models, then run the model and check and distribute the output forecast series. This gap is a blind spot in the forecasts from an atmospheric model. As an example in the Netherlands, KNMI publishes 4 times per day expected values of wind speed, wind direction, temperature and pressure for the period the between 0 and 48 hours after initialization of the atmospheric model Hirlam with measured data, and then the period before forecast delivery is of 4 hours.
Many different atmospheric models are available, ranging from academic research tools to fully operational instruments. Besides for the very nature of the model (physical processes or numerical schemes) there are some clear distinctive differences between them: time domain (from several hours to 6 days ahead), area (several 10.000 km² to an area covering half the planet), horizontal resolution (1 km to 100 km) and temporal resolution (1 hour to several hours).
One of the atmospheric models is the High Resolution Limited Area Model, abbreviated HiRLAM, which is frequently used in Europe. HiRLAM comes in many versions, that’s why it is better to speak about "a" HiRLAM rather than "the" HiRLAM. Each version is maintained by a national institute such as the Dutch KNMI, the Danish DMI or Finnish FMI. And each institute has several versions under her wing, divided into categories such as: operational, pre-operational, semi operational and for research purposes.
Other atmospheric models are UKMO in the UK, Lokalmodell in Germany, Alladin in France (Alladin and Lokalmodell are also used by some other country’s within Europe), and MM5 in the USA.
2.2.4 Physical approach to wind power forecasting
Meteorological forecasts are given at specific nodes of a grid covering an area. Since wind farms are not situated on these nodes, it is then needed to extrapolate these forecasts at the desired location and at turbine hub height. Physical-based forecasting methods consist of several sub-models which altogether deliver the translation from the wind forecast at a certain grid point and model level, to power forecast at the site considered. Every sub-model contains the mathematical description of the physical processes relevant to the translation. Knowledge of all relevant processes is therefore crucial when developing a purely physical prediction method (such as the early versions of the Danish Prediktor). The core idea of physical approaches is to refine the NWPs by using physical considerations about the terrain such as the roughness, orography and obstacles, and by modeling the local wind profile possibly accounting for atmospheric stability. The two main alternatives to do so are: (i) to combine the modeling of the wind profile (with a logarithmic assumption in most of the cases) and the geostrophic drag law for obtaining surface winds; (ii) to use a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code that allows one to accurately compute the wind field that the farm will see, considering a full description of the terrain.
When the wind at the level of the wind farm and at hub height is known, the second step consists in converting wind speed to power. Usually, that task is carried out with theoretical power curves. However, since several studies have shown the interest of using empirically derived power curve instead of theoretical ones, theoretical power curves are less and less considered. When applying a physical methodology, the modeling of the function which gives the wind generation from NWPs at given locations around the wind farm is done once for all. Then, the estimated transfer function is consequently applied to the available weather predictions at a given moment. In order to account for systematic forecasting errors that may be due to the NWP model or to their modeling approach, physical modelers often integrate Model Output Statistics (MOS) for post-processing power forecasts.
2.2.5 Statistical approach to wind power forecasting
Statistical prediction methods are based on one or several models that establish the relation between historical values of power, as well as historical and forecast values of meteorological variables, and wind power measurements. The physical phenomena are not decomposed and accounted for, even if expertise of the problem is crucial for choosing the right meteorological variables and designing suitable models. Model parameters are estimated from a set of past available data, and they are regularly updated during online operation by accounting for any newly available information (i.e. meteorological forecasts and power measurements).
Statistical models include linear and non-linear models, but also structural and black-box types of models. Structural models rely on the analyst’s expertise on the phenomenon of interest while black-box models require little subject-matter knowledge and are constructed from data in a fairly mechanical way. Concerning wind power forecasting, structural models would be those that include a modeling of the diurnal wind speed variations, or an explicit function of meteorological variable predictions. Black-box models include most of the artificial-intelligence-based models such as Neural-Networks (NNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). However, some models are ‘in-between’ the two extremes of being completely black-box or structural. This is the case of expert systems, which learn from experience (from a dataset), and for which prior knowledge can be injected. We then talk about grey-box modeling. Statistical models are usually composed by an autoregressive part, for seizing the persistent behavior of the wind, and by a ‘meteorological’ part, which consists in the nonlinear transformation of meteorological variable forecasts. The autoregressive part permits to significantly enhance forecast accuracy for horizons up to 6–10 hours ahead, i.e. over a period during which the sole use of meteorological forecast information may not be sufficient for outperforming persistence.
Today, major developments of statistical approaches to wind power prediction concentrate on the use of multiple meteorological forecasts (from different meteorological offices) as input and forecast combination, as well as on the optimal use of spatially distributed measurement data for prediction error correction, or alternatively for issuing warnings on potentially large uncertainty.
2.2.6 Uncertainty of wind power forecasts
Predictions of wind power output are traditionally provided in the form of point forecasts, i.e. a single value for each look-ahead time, which corresponds to the expectation or most-likely outcome. They have the advantage of being easily understandable because this single value is expected to tell everything about future power generation. Today, a major part of the research efforts on wind power forecasting still focuses on point prediction only, with the aim of assimilating more and more observations in the models or refining the resolution of physical models for better representing wind fields at the very local scale for instance. These efforts may lead to a significant decrease of the level of prediction error.
However, even by better understanding and modeling both the meteorological and power conversion processes, there will always be an inherent and irreducible uncertainty in every prediction. This epistemic uncertainty corresponds to the incomplete knowledge one has of the processes that influence future events. Therefore, in complement to point forecasts of wind generation for the coming hours or days, of major importance is to provide means for assessing online the accuracy of these predictions. In practice today, uncertainty is expressed in the form of probabilistic forecasts or with risk indices provided along with the traditional point predictions. It can be shown that any decision related to wind power management and trading cannot be optimal without accounting for prediction uncertainty. For the example of the trading application, studies have shown that reliable estimation of prediction uncertainty allows wind power producer to significantly increase their income in comparison to the sole use of an advanced point forecasting method. Other studies of this type deal with optimal dynamic quantification of reserve requirements, optimal operation of combined systems including wind, or multi-area multi-stage regulation. More and more research efforts are expected on prediction uncertainty and related topics
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2.2.7 Resources
A quantitative measure of the wind energy available at any location is called the Wind Power Density (WPD) It is a calculation of the mean annual power available per square meter of swept area of a turbine, and is tabulated for different heights above ground. Calculation of wind power density includes the effect of wind velocity and air density. Color-coded maps are prepared for a particular area described, for example, as "Mean Annual Power Density at 50 Meters." In the United States, the results of the above calculation are included in an index developed by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Lab and referred to as "NREL CLASS." The larger the WPD calculation, the higher it is rated by class. Classes range from Class 1 (200 watts/square meter or less at 50 meters altitude) to Class 7 (800 to 2000 watts/square meter). Commercial wind farms generally are sited in Class 3 or higher areas, although isolated points in an otherwise Class 1 area may be practical to exploit.
2.3 Windmill Machinery
Machinery in an Overdrift windmill, note the Fantail and Common Sails
Brake Wheel and Windshaft. Overdrift millstones
A Lantern Pinion Stone Nut in a Dutch Overdrift Open Trestle Post Mill with Spring Sails
Tower Mill with Roller Reefing Sails
Smock Mill with double Patent Sails A cast iron Windshaft
Bedstone
The Bedstone is the bottom of a pair of millstones. It does not move. The upper stone is called the Runner Stone.
Brake Wheel
The Brake Wheel is the main driving wheel in a Smock or Tower mill, and in some post mills. It is carried on the Windshaft and drives the Wallower on the Upright Shaft
Buck
The Buck is an East-Anglian term for the body of a post-mill.
Crown Tree
The Crown Tree is the central, single baulk of timber, usually oak, that rests on top of the post in a post mill. Attached to it are the side-girts and the rest of the frame of the buck.
Crown wheel
In a windmill, a Crown Wheel is an auxiliary gear on the Upright Shaft.
Fantail
A fantail is a small windmill which is used to keep a windmill facing into the wind automatically.
Great Spur Wheel
The Great Spur Wheel is carried on the Upright Shaft It drives the Stone Nuts. Millstones driven by the Great Spur Wheel can be either Overdrift or Underdrift.
Head Wheel
The Head Wheel is carried on the Windshaft in a Post Mill and has a brake around its circumference. It drives a Stone Nut, Millstones driven by the Head Wheel are always Overdrift stones.
Overdrift
Millstones driven from above are known as Overdrift stones.
Pintle
The pivot centering a post mill on top of the main post.
Runner Stone
The Runner Stone is the topmost of a pair of millstones. It is driven by the Stone Nut. The lower stone is called a Bedstone.
Sails
The Sails are the source of power in a windmill. They are carried on the Windshaft. Most windmills had four sails, although some had five (Boston), six (Waltham, Lincs) or eight sails Heckington, Lincs and there is one recorded twelve sailed windmill (Cottenham, Cambs).
Common Sails have a lattice framework over which a sailcloth is spread. These were the earliest type of sails in northern European windmills.
Spring Sails, invented in 1772 by Andrew Meikle, have shutters adjusted by a spring. Each sail is adjusted individually and, as with Common Sails the mill has to be stopped to enable an adjustment to be made.
Roller Reefing Sails, invented in 1789 by Stephen Hooper, use a canvas strip wound around a roller in the place of shutters. The mill does not have to be stopped in order to adjust the sails.
Patent Sails, invented in 1819 by William Cubitt, combine the shutters of the Spring Sail with the automatic adjustment of the Roller Reefing Sail. Single Patents have shutters on the trailing side of the sail, Double Patents have shutters on both sides of the sail for its whole length.
Samson Head
An iron collar and plate bearing that fits over the pintle of a post-mill's post, that supports the weight of the crown tree, around which the buck of the mill is constructed. An example is visible at High Salvington windmill.
Stock
The beam that passes through the canister of the windshaft, which the sails are bolted onto.
Stone Nut
The Stone Nut is a small gear driven by the Great Spur Wheel, Head Wheel, or Tail Wheel. It drives the Runner Stone either from above (Overdrift) or below (Underdrift).
Tail Wheel
The Tail Wheel is carried on the Windshaft in a Post Mill and drives a Stone Nut. Millstones driven by the Tail Wheel are always Overdrift stones.
Trestle
The Trestle is the substructure of a Post Mill, usually enclosed in a protective structure called a roundhouse, which also serves as a storage facility. Post mills without a roundhouse are called Open Trestle Post Mills.
Underdrift
Millstones driven from beneath are known as Underdrift stones.
Upright Shaft
The Upright Shaft is the main vertical shaft found in Smock and Tower mills. It is also found in some Post mills. It carries the Wallower at its top end, and a Great Spur Wheel at the bottom end. The Great Spur Wheel drves two or more Stone nuts.
Wallower
The Wallower is a driven gear at the top of the Upright Shaft in Smock, Tower and some Post mills. It is driven by the Brake Wheel
Windshaft
The Windshaft carries the Sails and also the Brake Wheel (Smock and Tower mills, and in some Post mills) or the Head Wheel and Tail Wheel in a Post Mill. Windshafts can be wholly made of wood, or wood with a cast iron Poll End (where the Sails are mounted) or entirely of cast iron.
Windbelt
The Windbelt is a device for converting wind power to electricity. A windbelt is essentially an aeolian harp except that it exploits the motion of the string produced by the aeroelastic flutter effect to move a magnet closer and farther from one or more electromagnetic coil and thus induce current in the wires that make up the coil.
Prototypes of the device are claimed to be 10 - 30 times more efficient than wind microturbines. One prototype has powered two LEDs, a radio, and a clock (separately) using wind generated from a household fan. The cost of the materials was well under US$10.
An improvement on the prototype increased efficiency hundredfold bringing the cost down to around $2 a watt. There are three sizes in development -
· a 'micro' version that could be used to charge small gadgets. This could be put into production in around six months.
· a 1 meter version that could be used to charge cellphones or run LED lights This could go into production within 18 to 24 months.
· an experimental 10-meter model that has an unknown production date.
The Windbelt's inventor, Shawn Frayne, was a winner of the 2007 Breakthrough Award from the publishers of the magazine, Popular Mechanics. He is improving the Windbelt's design to make it more affordable.
2.4 Wind-Electric System Components
Understanding the basic components of an RE system and how they function is not an overwhelming task. Here are some brief descriptions of the common equipment used in grid-intertied and off-grid wind-electric systems. Systems vary—not all equipment is necessary for every system type.
The wind generator is what actually generates electricity in the system. Most modern wind generators are upwind designs (blades are on the side of the tower that faces into the wind), and couple permanent magnet alternators directly to the rotor (blades). Three-bladed wind generators are most common, providing a good compromise between efficiency and rotor balance.
Small wind turbines protect themselves from high winds (governing) by tilting the rotor up or to the side, or by changing the pitch of the blades. Electricity is transmitted down the tower on wires, most often as three-phase wild alternating current (AC).
It´s called "wild" because the voltage and frequency vary with the rotational speed of the wind turbine. The output is then rectified to direct current (DC) to charge batteries or to be inverted for grid connection.
A wind generator tower is very often more expensive than the turbine. The tower puts the turbine up in the "fuel"—the smooth strong winds that give the most energy. Wind turbines should be sited at least 30 feet (9 m) higher than anything within 500 feet (152 m).
Three common types of towers are tilt-up, fixed-guyed, and freestanding. Towers must be specifically engineered for the lateral thrust and weight of the turbine, and should be adequately grounded to protect your equipment against lightning damage. See Wind Generator Tower Basics in HP105 for information about choosing a tower.
2.4.3Brake
Most wind turbines have some means of stopping the turbine for repairs, in an emergency, for routine maintenance, or when the energy is not needed. Many turbines have "dynamic braking," which simply shorts out the three electrical phases and acts as a disconnect. Others have mechanical braking, either via a disc or drum brake, activated by a small winch at the base of the tower. Still others have mechanical furling, which swings the rotor out of the wind. Mechanical braking is usually more effective and reliable than dynamic braking.
Most wind turbines have some means of stopping the turbine for repairs, in an emergency, for routine maintenance, or when the energy is not needed. Many turbines have "dynamic braking," which simply shorts out the three electrical phases and acts as a disconnect. Others have mechanical braking, either via a disc or drum brake, activated by a small winch at the base of the tower. Still others have mechanical furling, which swings the rotor out of the wind. Mechanical braking is usually more effective and reliable than dynamic braking.
A wind-electric charge controller´s primary function is to protect your battery bank from overcharging. It does this by monitoring the battery bank— when the bank is fully charged, the controller sends energy from the battery bank to a dump (diversion) load.
Many wind-electric charge controllers are built into the same box as the rectifiers (AC-to-DC converters). Overcurrent protection is needed between the battery and controller/dump load.
In batteryless grid-tie systems, there is no controller in normal operation, since the inverter is selling whatever energy the turbine is generating. But there will be some control function in the case of grid failure, and there may be electronics before the inverter to regulate the input voltage.
Solar-electric modules can be turned off—open circuited—with no damage. Most wind generators should not run unloaded. They will run too fast and too loud, and may self-destruct. They must be connected to a battery bank or load. So normally, a charge controller that has the capability of being a diversion controller is used. A diversion controller takes surplus energy from the battery bank and sends it to a dump load. In contrast, a series controller (commonly used in PV systems), actually opens the circuit.
A dump load is an electrical resistance heater, and it must be sized to handle the full generating capacity of the wind generator used. These dump loads can be air or water heaters, and are activated by the charge controller whenever the batteries or the grid cannot accept the energy being produced.
Your wind generator will produce electricity whenever the wind blows above the cut-in speed. If your system is off grid, you´ll need a battery bank—a group of batteries wired together—to store energy so you can have electricity when it´s not windy. For off-grid systems, battery banks are typically sized to keep household electricity running for one to three calm days. Grid-intertied systems also can include battery banks to provide emergency backup during blackouts—perfect for keeping critical electric loads operating until the grid is up again.
Use only deep-cycle batteries in wind-electric systems. Lead-acid batteries are the most common battery type. Flooded lead-acid batteries are usually the least expensive, but require adding distilled water occasionally to replenish water lost during the normal charging process. Sealed absorbent glass mat (AGM) batteries are maintenance free and designed for grid-tied systems where the batteries are typically kept at a full state of charge. Sealed gel-cell batteries can be a good choice to use in unheated spaces due to their freeze-resistant qualities.
System meters can measure and display several different aspects of your wind-electric system´s performance and status—tracking how full your battery bank is, how much electricity your wind generator is producing or has produced, and how much electricity is in use. Operating your system without metering is like running your car without any gauges—although possible to do, it´s always better to know how much fuel is in the tank.
In battery-based systems, a disconnect between the batteries and inverter is required. This disconnect is typically a large, DC-rated breaker mounted in a metal enclosure. This breaker allows the inverter to be quickly disconnected from the batteries for service, and protects the inverter-to-battery wiring against electrical fires.
Inverters transform the electricity produced by your wind generator into the AC electricity commonly used in most homes for powering lights and appliances. Grid-tied inverters synchronize the electricity they produce with the grid´s "utility grade" AC electricity, allowing the system to feed wind electricity to the utility grid.
Grid-tie inverters are either designed to operate with or without batteries. Battery-based inverters for off-grid or grid-tie systems often include a battery charger, which is capable of charging a battery bank from either the grid or a backup generator during cloudy 
weather.
weather.
The AC breaker panel is the point at which all of a home’s electrical wiring meets with the provider of the electricity, whether that’s the grid or a solar-electric system. This wall-mounted panel or box is usually installed in a utility room, basement, garage, or on the exterior of the building. It contains a number of labeled circuit breakers that route electricity to the various rooms throughout a house. These breakers allow electricity to be disconnected for servicing, and also protect the building’s wiring against electrical fires.
Just like the electrical circuits in your home or office, an inverter’s electrical output needs to be routed through an AC circuit breaker. This breaker is usually mounted inside the building’s mains panel, which enables the inverter to be disconnected from either the grid or from electrical loads if servicing is necessary, and also safeguards the circuit’s electrical wiring.
Additionally, for their use, utilities usually require an AC disconnect between the inverter and the grid that is for their use. These are usually located near the utility KWH meter.
Most homes with a grid-tied wind-electric system will have AC electricity both coming from and going to the electric utility grid. A bidirectional KWH meter can simultaneously keep track of how much electricity you´re using and how much your system is producing. The utility company often provides intertie-capable meters at no cost.
Off-grid wind-electric systems can be sized to provide electricity during calm periods when the wind doesn´t blow. But sizing a system to cover a worst-case scenario, like several calm weeks during the summer, can result in a very large, expensive system that will rarely get used to its capacity and will run a huge surplus in windy times. To spare your pocketbook, go with at least two sources of energy. Wind-PV hybrid systems are often an excellent fit with local renewable resources. But a backup, fuel-powered generator still may be necessary.
Engine-generators can be fueled with biodiesel, petroleum diesel, gasoline, or propane, depending on the design. Most generators produce AC electricity that a battery charger (either stand-alone or incorporated into an inverter) converts to DC energy, which is stored in batteries. Like most internal combustion engines, generators tend to be loud and stinky, but a well-designed renewable energy system will require running them only 50 to 200 hours a year or less.
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